Analysis

10 game stat says Ipswich Town will avoid Premier League relegation

Julio Enciso (left) and Issa Diop have been key men, with newly-promoted Ipswich claiming 11 points from their opening 10 Premier League games. <i>(Image: PA)</i>
Julio Enciso (left) and Issa Diop have been key men, with newly-promoted Ipswich claiming 11 points from their opening 10 Premier League games. (Image: PA)
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Ipswich Town will survive in the Premier League if a more than decade-long trend continues this season.

Following Sunday's 2-1 home defeat to AFC Bournemouth, the Blues go into the second international break sitting 14th in the table ahead of Fulham, Nottingham Forest, Coventry, Manchester United, Sunderland and Crystal Palace.

Gary O'Neil's men have taken 11 points from their opening 10 games, scoring 15 and conceding 20.

And recent history shows that every newly-promoted side to have picked up 11 points or more from the opening 10 games goes on to survive.

There's a decent sample size, too. Research by the BBC shows that, since 2015/16, 14 teams have hit that marker.

You have to go back to 2013/14 to find a team that went down after such a start. Cardiff had 12 points after 10 games that season and ended up finishing bottom with 30 points.

By contrast, only two newly-promoted sides from the past 11 seasons have taken fewer than 11 points from their first 10 games and survived - Bournemouth in 2015-16 (eight) and Forest in 2022-23 (five).

Ipswich took just five points from their opening 10 Premier League games the last time they were in the top flight (2024/25), drawing five and losing five. Kieran McKenna's men went on to finish 19th with a tally of 22 points.

Town return to action with a trip to Tottenham on Saturday, November 21. After that comes games against Aston Villa (H), Coventry (A) and Leeds (A).

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