The Premier League expected goals table suggests that Ipswich Town should be lower than their current 14th-place position in the table.
The Blues have accrued 11 points from 10 games so far this season, with three wins and a draw to their name. They have scored 15 goals but have conceded 20, the second most in the entire division.
FotMob’s xG table shows that their numbers should be a little bit different. Using xG for and against from every match played so far, they can calculate an expected points (xPTS) total.
Town aren’t far off where the data says they should be. Their xG for is 13.5, which they are slightly overperforming, while their xG against is 19.4, which they are just 0.6 off.
That gives them an xPTS of 11 – bang on what they have at this point in the campaign.
That’s reassuring, showing that Ipswich aren’t riding their luck in games and roughly deserve what they currently have.
However, a number of teams currently below them in the Premier League table are significantly underperforming their output, which shows that they might be in line to improve quite a bit in the next few weeks.
16th place Nottingham Forest have the fifth best xG ratio in the division, giving them an xPTS of 17. Sunderland, currently 19th, rank seventh with 15 xPTS.
Fulham (10th in the xG table) and Manchester United (13th) are also playing better than their real-life points tally suggests.
On the flip side, Hull City (19th), Newcastle United (17th), Aston Villa (15th), Brentford (14th), Chelsea (12th) and Everton (11th) are coming out on the right side of games where they wouldn’t be expected to.
That might not last, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of them slip down the table in the coming months.
Leeds (9th) and Crystal Palace (20th) are unique, with their places in the xG table and the Premier League table exactly the same. That won't make good reading for the Eagles, who are reportedly set to sack boss Pierre Sage.
Of course, xG isn’t a stat that will definitively shows how good or bad a team might be, but it can be used to assess performances and how likely a change in form is for certain teams.
It also shows us how tight and competitive the Premier League is, with very little between the teams, although a small sample size also contributes to this.
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